The Week in Culture Pictures, Nov. 19

The White Light Festival

The New York Times classical music critics and a reporter are discussing Lincoln Center's White Light Festival, music and spirituality.

White Light Festival: An Act of Testimony

By STEVE SMITH

The message is not that classical music is lofty, beautiful, cultured or superior. It is that some classical music - and some Indian devotional music, and some speculative early-music theater, and some kung fu-related dance - can provide the same contemplative conduit that yoga, meditation or, perhaps, psychoanalysis do.

White Light Festival: A Tribute to Belief

By ANTHONY TOMMASINI

Virgil Thomson, who grew up in a Baptist family and was a church organist in his youth, was never susceptible to religion, even as a child. Yet like his student Mr. Rorem, Thomson wrote many deeply felt sacred works.

White Light Festival: The Proof Is in the Reviews

By ALLAN KOZINN

And speaking of the personal side of spirituality, I have to say that for all the cross-cultural variety that has been cited on the festival's behalf, I found that my own spiritual interests were entirely unrepresented.

More Arts News & Features

Gotham Chronicle: Sharp Eye, and Pencil

By CAROL KINO

The artist Denys Wortman, who from 1924 to 1954 contributed six drawings a week to The New York World and its successors, has been rediscovered.

About ArtsBeat

ArtsBeat is a Web site devoted to culture news and reviews, and to the work and interests of the reporters and critics of the culture department of The New York Times. Come here for breaking stories about the arts, coverage of live events, interviews with leading cultural figures, critical reviews, multimedia extravaganzas and much more.

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The Week in Culture Pictures, Nov. 19

The White Light Festival

The New York Times classical music critics and a reporter are discussing Lincoln Center's White Light Festival, music and spirituality.

White Light Festival: An Act of Testimony

By STEVE SMITH

The message is not that classical music is lofty, beautiful, cultured or superior. It is that some classical music - and some Indian devotional music, and some speculative early-music theater, and some kung fu-related dance - can provide the same contemplative conduit that yoga, meditation or, perhaps, psychoanalysis do.

White Light Festival: A Tribute to Belief

By ANTHONY TOMMASINI

Virgil Thomson, who grew up in a Baptist family and was a church organist in his youth, was never susceptible to religion, even as a child. Yet like his student Mr. Rorem, Thomson wrote many deeply felt sacred works.

White Light Festival: The Proof Is in the Reviews

By ALLAN KOZINN

And speaking of the personal side of spirituality, I have to say that for all the cross-cultural variety that has been cited on the festival's behalf, I found that my own spiritual interests were entirely unrepresented.

About ArtsBeat

ArtsBeat is a Web site devoted to culture news and reviews, and to the work and interests of the reporters and critics of the culture department of The New York Times. Come here for breaking stories about the arts, coverage of live events, interviews with leading cultural figures, critical reviews, multimedia extravaganzas and much more.

We welcome your input: Send your feedback and tips to artsbeat@nytimes.com and learn more about our commenting policy here.

Follow us: Twitter | RSS

Archive

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Arts & Leisure Preview: Cher, Fran Lebowitz and More

November 19, 2010, 4:00 pm

By BLAKE WILSON

Wisdom, insights and observations from this weekend’s Arts & Leisure section. (Click on links for complete articles.)

“I’ve never tried anything more than playing who I am. If you look at my characters, they’re all me.” — Cher, in a profile by Frank Bruni. Cher’s new movie, “Burlesque,” opens nationwide on Wednesday.

“I happen to be one of the most discursive conversationalists on the planet. I could start out with geography and end up at raincoats.” — the writer Fran Lebowitz. Melena Ryzik interviews Ms. Lebowitz, who is the subject of Martin Scorsese’s new HBO documentary, “Public Speaking.”

“His work didn’t seem studied. It was as if you were looking out the window — or my window in the Bronx.” — the cartoonist Jules Feiffer on the artist Denys Wortman. Carol Kino writes about Mr. Wortman’s decades of newspaper drawings, the subject of a new exhibition at the Museum of the City of New York.

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When the Critic Says an Art Form Is Dying

“Is Ballet Over?” That’s the question that greeted readers of The New Republic in an article adapted from the epilogue of “Apollo’s Angels,” a history of classical ballet by Jennifer Homans that was published this month. Ms. Homans, the dance critic for The New Republic, a scholar at New York University and a former professional ballet dancer, is profiled in the Arts & Leisure section on Sunday.

In an interview, Ms. Homans acknowledged a few recent bright spots — extraordinary performances by the ballerinas Natalia Osipova and Diana Vishneva, for instance. Among contemporary choreographers, she said, she especially admired William Forsythe, and named Alexei Ratmansky and Christopher Wheeldon as talents — although she characterized their work as “uneven.”

But in her book, she argues that ballet companies have become “museums for the old,” that too many dancers have traded artistry for “unthinking athleticism,” that choreography “veers from unimaginative imitation to strident innovation.”

Do professional dance makers and observers agree? We asked a few for their reactions.

Sarah Kaufman, a dance critic for The Washington Post and winner of the Pulitzer Prize for criticism: She said the book’s argument does reflect “a general sense that there’s little revelation to be found on any given night at the ballet lately.” But she ascribed this less to artistic malaise and more to economic realities. “Artistic directors make uninspiring choices because they’re pressured by the boards to sell tickets, to be conservative and to hire dancers that fit a certain marketing demand,” she said.

Gelsey Kirkland and Michael Chernov, married former dancers who this year opened the Gelsey Kirkland Academy of Classical Ballet in New York: They said they would not go so far as to say ballet was dying, though they did believe the general public’s interest was fading. But critics and artists should be cautious, they said, about the conclusions they draw and the solutions they envision. “One hundred years ago people were desperately trying to find a new form because they thought a new form would solve the problems with ballet,” Mr. Chernov said. “But it’s not form that’s the essence of art — it’s content. If the content is deep, then the form will find itself.”

Edward Villella, a former dancer with New York City Ballet and now artistic director of Miami City Ballet: He said the major challenges to American ballet were financial and educational. Ballet isn’t dying in countries where there are state theaters with large national budgets, Mr. Villella noted. In America, however, companies must raise money themselves, and “we’re all basically trying to educate our audiences and survive.” There was a day when public television helped to bridge a gap, Mr. Villella added. “All of that has become terrifically limited,” he said. “We have an awful lot of shows — ‘So You Think You Can Dance,’ ‘Dancing With the Stars’ — but those avoid the major challenges that we in the classical world have to deal with.”

Readers, what do you think: Is ballet dying? What are its greatest challenges?

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Ex-Director of Miami Art Museum to Curate Biennale in China

November 18, 2010, 8:00 pm

By ROBIN POGREBIN

Terence Riley, the former director of the Miami Art Museum, has been appointed chief curator for the 2011 edition of the Shenzhen & Hong Kong Biennale of Urbanism\Architecture. The appointment makes Mr. Riley the first non-Chinese curator for the event, which started in 2005.

“Our idea is to create a paradigm that considers the cyclical growth pattern of urban sites such as Shenzhen, where cities create architecture, architecture creates cities, and how this process continues without end,” Mr. Riley said in a statement.

Before leading the Miami Museum Mr. Riley was the chief curator of architecture and design at the Museum of Modern Art in New York. He is a founding partner of the architecture firm K/R.

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Have You Heard the One About the Rabbi Who Didn't Memorize His Lines?

Usually an Off Broadway theater company trumpets its production starring an Academy Award winner. But not so the Culture Project with its production of Colin Greer’s play “Imagining Heschel,” running through Nov. 28 at the Cherry Lane Theater and starring Richard Dreyfuss (a 1977 Oscar winner for best actor in “The Goodbye Girl”) as the prominent 20th century Jewish theologian Abraham Heschel.

The Culture Project has canceled the opening night for the production, which began performances on Nov. 4, and has asked theater critics not to review the show, which imagines what was said during years of conversations between Rabbi Heschel and Cardinal Augustin Bea as they worked to improve Jewish-Catholic relations.

Allan Buchman, the founder and artistic director of the Culture Project, said in an interview on Thursday that he and others decided the production was not ready for critical scrutiny, and that they feared mixed or negative reviews would damage the play’s chances for future stagings. Among other issues, rewrites to the script were underway through late last week, and Mr. Dreyfuss, 63, had agreed to perform on the condition that he not have to participate in a normal rehearsal schedule and that he not have to commit all of his lines to memory.

Three months ago, Mr. Buchman said, the Culture Project held a private reading of the play with Mr. Dreyfuss and the composer and performer Rinde Eckert (“Orpheus X”) as Bea. Mr. Buchman said he, the director Larry Moss, and Mr. Greer “felt Richard did a huge job and had a great affinity for the material,” noting that Mr. Dreyfuss had memorably recited Kaddish in a 1994 commemoration of the Holocaust at the Vatican in the presence of Pope John Paul II.

“At the same time, Richard was upfront with us that he had more or less retired from the theater,” Mr. Buchman said. “He made it clear that while he was interested in doing the play, he didn’t want to be part of a full production. So we thought that him being partially on book would add a lot more than having another actor who had memorized all of his lines, and we cherished the idea of him and Rinde having a go at it.

“And we felt what Richard was contributing through the dramaturgical and theatrical process added a lot more to the production than having another actor go through the full rehearsal process.” Tickets at the 179-seat theater are $61 apiece.

Mr. Dreyfuss arrived in New York on Halloween and performances began Nov. 4; normally, the cast and crew would have had at least a few weeks of rehearsal. But from the first night, Mr. Buchman said, the production was clearly a work-in-progress, with Mr. Greer doing rewrites until last Friday — a process that normally culminates during rehearsals — and Mr. Dreyfuss reading lines from his script during performances.

“While we think this is a provocative night at the theater, we also didn’t want to risk penalizing the future of the play,” Mr. Buchman said. “If we got reviews and the reviews were lukewarm at best, the chances of this play having a future at regional theaters and elsewhere would be absolutely nil.” He added that the actors, Mr. Greer, Mr. Moss and members of the Heschel family all agreed with this course of action.

Jane Dystel, Mr. Dreyfuss’s agent, said she was unaware of any significant problems with the production.

Mr. Dreyfuss, 63, is known in the acting community as strong-willed and blunt. His last major theatrical outing was supposed to be as the lead character Max Bialystock in the Mel Brooks musical “The Producers” in London, but he was fired from the show in October 2004 just days before preview performances were to begin.

Mr. Buchman said there had been no such problems with “Heschel” because Mr. Dreyfuss had made clear to the everyone that he was only willing to do so much to prepare for the show. “I know Richard’s reputation, and he has not shied away from offering his viewpoints during the production, but he has also been nothing but professional,” Mr. Buchman said.

He added that he hoped to mount “a full production with a full production schedule” of the play in a year or so, but did not expect Mr. Dreyfuss to return to the role.

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A New Home for St. Ann's Warehouse

St. Ann’s Warehouse, the Dumbo-based theater best known for presenting work from the Wooster Group and other downtown favorites, has been conditionally designated by the Brooklyn Bridge Park Corporation to become the primary tenant of the Tobacco Warehouse, located across the street from the theater’s current home.

Last year St. Ann’s began a search for a new space after the New York City Council approved a development project for Dumbo that would turn the 14,000-square-foot theater into an apartment complex and middle school. The announcement of the move was made on Thursday by St. Ann’s and Brooklyn Bridge Park, a nonprofit organization responsible for the 85-acre waterfront park along the East River shoreline.

Susan Feldman, the artistic director of St. Ann’s, said in a phone interview that the theater wants to turn the Tobacco Warehouse, a Civil War-era structure in the Empire Fulton Ferry section of Brooklyn Bridge Park, into a community-usage space.

Plans call for two performance spaces: a 10,000-square-foot theater that could accommodate an audience of up to 700 and a 2,100-square-foot space that could accommodate a maximum of 125. A triangular section of the structure would remain mostly uncovered, to be served by a park concession and open for public use during park hours. The remainder of the proposed facility, which was designed by H3 Hardy Collaborative Architecture, includes a 2,500-square-foot lobby, public restrooms and performance support space.

“I feel humble about it, and I feel responsible,” said Ms. Feldman. “I think we’ll do a great job. We’re the right organization because I think we’ll be sensitive to the preservation issues for that building. I think it will feel very integrated into that park.”

Ms. Feldman said the new facility was scheduled to open in the winter of 2013. She did not expect a break in programming as the theater moved out of its space and into the renovated warehouse. If St. Ann’s finds itself between homes, Ms. Feldman said she would consider renting space from other arts organizations, such as the Brooklyn Academy of Music, or schedule more shows outdoors.

Renovations to the warehouse will be extensive. Engineers still have to assess the structural safety of the space, which has a redesign budget of about $15 million.

“It’s vulnerable,” she said. “It’s got no roof. It’s subject to graffiti. It needs to be propped up in the archways.”

The theater’s move was “an important moment for the city,” said Ms. Feldman, who likened it to the Public Theater’s being given the Delacorte Theater in Central Park.

“Brooklyn will have a cultural center on the waterfront,” she said. “These things don’t happen that often.”

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Lincoln Center Scrambles After Visa Problems

November 15, 2010, 6:00 pm

By DANIEL J. WAKIN

Visa problems have forced Lincoln Center to delay the culminating performances of its White Light Festival, dedicated to transcendence in music, until next week. “The Manganiyar Seduction,” which was scheduled for Wednesday and Thursday, will now take place on Monday and Tuesday. Manganiyars are a caste of Indian musicians of Muslim origin from western Rajasthan state whose songs celebrate Hindu deities. Jane Moss, Lincoln Center’s vice president for programming and the organizer of the festival, said that visa applications were made in May and that about half of the 50-member troupe involved in the show had received visas by Oct. 13, but the rest were sent for further review by State Department officials. By Friday a dozen members still had not received visas, so the performances were postponed. Word came over the weekend that the remaining visas had been granted. The Rose Theater at Jazz at Lincoln Center was available Monday and Tuesday for the shift. Tickets can be used for the new dates, refunded or exchanged.

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Bill Clinton's Camp Coy About Possible 'Hangover 2' Cameo

November 15, 2010, 1:25 pm

By DAVE ITZKOFF

Given the level of curiosity and news media coverage that has greeted a possible course of action that may have been taken by former President Bill Clinton, you’d think he was still in office, having just decided on a candidate for a vacancy in his cabinet or on the Supreme Court.

But no. On Monday, a spokesman for Mr. Clinton would neither confirm nor deny that the former president had filmed a cameo appearance in “The Hangover 2,” a sequel to the hit Todd Phillips comedy.

In response to an e-mail from my colleague Michael D. Shear, Matt McKenna, the spokesman, wrote: “Sorry you got stuck with this one today, but I don’t have anything for you.”

Over the weekend the Internet was abuzz with reports from Web sites like TMZ.com and People.com that said Mr. Clinton had been filmed in a small role for “The Hangover 2″ while on a trip to Bangkok. (TMZ.com also posted photographs that it said showed Mr. Clinton on the set.)

“The Hangover,” an R-rated comedy about a bachelor party in Las Vegas that goes very, very wrong, was one of the biggest box office hits last year, selling more than $467 million in tickets worldwide. The original film featured an extended cameo by the boxer Mike Tyson, playing a satirical version of himself, and “The Hangover 2″ briefly made headlines amid reports that an amends-making Mel Gibson would pop up in the movie, though Mr. Gibson’s role has since gone to Liam Neeson.

While a raunchy comedy might not be the most dignified place for a politician of Mr. Clinton’s stature to turn up, it would not be entirely without precedent: Senator John McCain of Arizona had a cameo in the R-rated comedy “Wedding Crashers” in 2005, three years before he was the Republican Party’s nominee for the presidency.

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Critics' Picks Video: 'The General'

November 15, 2010, 5:27 pm

By MEKADO MURPHY

In this week’s Critics’ Pick, A. O. Scott looks back at the 1927 silent film “The General,” a movie that “turns the intractable and cruel laws of physics into cinematic poetry,” he says. The film was written by, directed by and stars Buster Keaton. Although Mr. Keaton was usually associated with comedies, Mr. Scott sees “The General” as more of an action movie, “one of the purest and, still, one of the best of its kind,” he says. Have you seen “The General?” Please share your thoughts on this and other Buster Keaton films.

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Suit Accuses 'South Park' of Copyright Infringement

November 15, 2010, 2:21 pm

By DAVE ITZKOFF

4:21 p.m. | Updated

The producers of “South Park” are once again in trouble for using a Web video as source material for their comedy – this time, for parodying a viral video so closely that the video’s creators say the parody constitutes copyright infringement.

In a lawsuit filed Friday in United States District Court in Milwaukee, the production company Brownmark Films says a Web video it created in 2007, which has a vulgar title that begins “What What,” was satirized in a 2008 “South Park” episode called “Canada on Strike.” In that installment of the Comedy Central animated series, the suit says, the video is lampooned by the “South Park” character Butters “and his incorrigible cohorts.”

The suit adds that the “South Park” satire “is a nearly frame-by-frame recreation of the heart of the audiovisual work” that Brownmark created, and that the “South Park” producers, “without the permission or consent of Brownmark, and without authority, have prepared a derivative work.”

The lawsuit, which names South Park Studios and Comedy Central’s parent companies, including MTV Networks and Viacom, as defendants, was reported by the THR, Esq. blog of The Hollywood Reporter.

Comedy Central said on Monday in a statement: “Courts have consistently recognized that parody enjoys broad protections under the First Amendment and the Copyright Act.” The network added it believes the parody “is fully protected against any copyright infringement claims under the fair-use doctrine and the First Amendment and we plan to vigorously defend those rights.”

Last month the “South Park” creators Trey Parker and Matt Stone, apologized for using material in an episode taken from a Web video created for CollegeHumor.com. The authors of that video said they accepted the apology.

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Roll With The Cycles, Grab Some Cisco While It’s Cheap Again

Darwin's ideas work in stocks, too

“If I’d known I was going to live this long, I would have taken better care of myself.” – Eubie Blake, American composer (1887–1983)

You cannot underestimate the power of cycles.? They reoccur in nature, business, and financial markets with great regularity.? When we ignore them, cycles seem obvious in hindsight.? Foresight is where you’ll make your money.

Time frames may be different based on secular trends, weather phenomenon, innovations in health care, and government intervention, but generally, what goes around, comes around.? For example, economic booms and busts occurred, on average, every 14 years for 2,000 years.?Beginning in the late 20th?century, they began cycling every seven years as a direct result of government efforts to stimulate economic activity during recessionary downturns.? While they occur more frequently, they’re cycles nonetheless.

Tall Parents Have Shorter Children, On Average
Charles Darwin and his cousin, Francis Galton, were the first to note that tall parents have shorter children, on average, and vice versa.? With Karl Pearson, they studied over one thousand father and son pairs.? Galton termed this phenomenon in nature “regression to mediocrity.”? Since then, the method of studying how one variable leads to another variable has been called “regression analysis.”

Financial market observers see it all the time.? Excessively high prices eventually lead to excessively low prices.? The key to succeeding as an investor is knowing where the excesses are when they’re happening and exploiting them.

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“Joining The Dow Can Be The Kiss Of Death”
In September, Jeff Reeves of InvestorPlace.com conducted research showing that by the time companies have grown to become the recognized leaders in their industries, share prices are inflated.? For example, turning the clock back to March 1999 when the Dow Jones Averages closed above 10,000 for the first time, then crested to 11,000 a few months later, four of the biggest names of the day joined the Dow 30. Here’s how they fared: AT&T (then SBC Communications), down 38%; Intel, down 50%;?Microsoft, down 47%;?Home Depot, ?down 38%.

During subsequent reformulations of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, laggards were replaced with other leaders of the time.? They included Pfizer, Verizon, Bank of America, Cisco, and AIG.? As a group, these stocks have been shellacked since they joined the Dow 30, but along the way they have continued to make a lot of money for anyone who purchased shares when stock prices were excessively low.? Many have tripled off of lows in 2003 and 2009.

The point is this: You cannot fight the power and magnitude of cycles.? They can make or break an investor.? Here’s one stock that appears far too low right now:

Fallen Angels Focus Stock: Cisco Systems? (CSCO, 20.15)

Cisco is the dominant player in the global networking industry.? Shares plummeted more than 16% on ?Thursday following a less than stellar outlook presented by company management.? While management cited near term challenges, we believe the selling has provided an attractive entry point for longer-term investors.

The company has a solid balance sheet, operating profit margins of more than 20% and net margins in the high teens.? Our fair value estimate (based on discounted cash flow analysis) is $30 per share; providing investors with 50% potential upside from current levels.

Gabriel Wisdom and clients of American Money Management LLC, including mutual funds managed by AMM may buy or sell securities mentioned without prior notice.

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Market Meets New Wall of Worry Or More Likely Just Brief Profit-Taking On Way To Higher Highs

Stocks pulled back after a big advance and that can be good for bull markets

Most of the bricks in the previous wall of worry have been removed.?Economic reports have continued to improve over recent weeks; in manufacturing, the service sector, retail sales, durable goods orders, and even in the employment picture, where 151,000 new jobs were created in October, more than double the 70,000 that economists expected.

The uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s QE2 decision has been resolved with the Fed adding to the stimulating atmosphere, providing another round of quantitative easing in spite of the already improving economy.

The major U.S. market indexes, including the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq rallied back to, and then above the potential resistance at their April peaks, before pulling back some this week.

Investors have become even more bullish and optimistic. This week’s poll of its members by the American Association of Individual Investors showed 57.6% bullish, the highest level in almost four years.

The good news apparently also reached Main Street. On Friday morning it was reported that the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index improved to 69.3 in early November (its highest level in five months) from 67.7 in October.

So what has been wrong with global markets this week?

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The U.S. market closed down roughly 2.5% for the week. Emerging markets, which many analysts projected would benefit the most from inflows of additional liquidity provided by the Fed’s decision, were down the most. Brazil, India, South Korea, closed down two to three percent for the week, while China closed down a big 5.5%. Meanwhile, Japan, a large developed country, which was not supposed to fare as well as emerging country markets, closed up 1.0% for the week.

A bet against emerging markets via the ProShares UltraShort Emerging Markets ETF, symbol EEV (designed to move up when emerging markets move down, and leveraged two to one) closed up almost 9.0% for the week.

Was it just that markets had become short-term overbought and ran into a brief bout of profit-taking, particularly since this was the week before the month’s options expirations week, and the week before tends to be negative?

If so, markets are likely to be back up next week since the decline this week took care of the short-term overbought condition, and next week is the week of the expirations, which tend to be positive.

Or was the decline the beginning of something more serious?

The market does seem to have a new wall of worry just a week after concerns about the economic recovery, and whether the Fed would or would not provide additional quantitative easing, faded away.

The bricks in the new wall of worry include:

• Concerns that the Fed’s additional stimulus may cause new problems rather than help the economy by encouraging home purchases or providing new jobs.
• Worries that commodity prices had spiked up into bubbles which may burst, a worry that struck Friday with the big $40 an ounce (3%) plunge in the price of gold, and equally large declines in the price of oil and other important commodities.
• Apprehensions about the activities of the Chinese government, including talk that it might hike interest rates to dramatically slow its globally important economy and ward off threatening excessive inflation in China.
• Anxiety about a potential currency or trade war if the decline in the U.S. dollar continues.

Via technical analysis there is also the U.S. market’s intermediate-term overbought condition above 20-week moving averages, and the high level of investor bullishness (which is at levels of complacency often seen at market tops).

The uncertainties have even extended to U.S. Treasury bonds, which investors have piled into as a perceived safe haven over the last two years. The safe haven over the last two months has actually been a bet against U.S. Treasury bonds. For instance, the ‘inverse’ ProShares Short 20-year bond etf, symbol TBF, designed to move up when bonds move down, has gained 11% since early September, while bonds have declined 11%.

There’s no doubt about it. We are still in a very fluid economic and investing period, not a time for investors to become so complacent as the investor sentiment readings seem to indicate, that they fall asleep at the switch.

(In the interest of full disclosure, we have positions in the U.S. market, the Japanese market, gold, and the ‘inverse’ bond ETF TBF, in our portfolio, at least at the moment).

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5 Long-Term Consequences Of The Recession

By Stephen Simpson

Whenever the word “recession” comes up, people expect a certain amount of damage, and damage of a certain type. Everybody knows that there will be job losses and a general sense of gloom and malaise. Most people also seem to expect the government to “do something” to end the recession. Along the way, the stock market falls, interest rates drop and overall economic activity slows down. It is never pleasant, but it is a relatively routine part of the economic cycle.

The Great Recession that officially ended a year ago may be different with consequences that could run deep and last for many years. (It’s not all bad. Check out The Bright Side Of The Credit Crisis.)

“I Love You, But …”
This recession seems to be having a definite impact on family life. Industrial production is not the only “production” that has fallen; birth rates have dropped to record lows as people delay having children in the face of the economic troubles. What’s more, there is the expected increase in divorces – not surprising, given that monetary issues are a common root cause of divorce and tough economic times sharpen those problems – as well as a big spike in prenup agreements.

Losing the Future
One of the saddest under-reported consequences of recession is the different impacts it can have on young people. Grim as it is, recessions lead to higher rates of child malnutrition, and there is ample evidence that points to serious long-term consequences to such malnutrition, including stunted development and academic under-achievement.Even for kids who have enough to eat, the impacts can still be serious. Less money in the pockets of parents can have a direct impact on the kids’ education and enrichment opportunities. Too many high school kids are finding college slipping out of reach due to a combination of parents who cannot help with tuition and banks that will not lend. What’s more, it is fair to wonder what the psychological impact may be of seeing mom and/or dad lose a job and be out of work for years – does it inspire unproductive emotions like resentment or fatalism? (For more, see The 6 Worst Student Loan Mistakes You Can Make.)

More Anger, More Distrust
Recessions have a way of stapling a “kick me” sign to the back of whatever government is in charge during the troubles. This recession feels a bit different though, as almost everybody seems angry about something. One side of the aisle is livid at what they see as untrammeled expansion and intrusion of government; the other side chastises the government for not getting involved enough and solving the problem!With a festering pit of rancor to exploit, some politicians are apparently looking to score points with constituents by stirring the pot instead of working with their colleagues to create long-term solutions for national policy. In turn, that may mean that this recession has the long-term side effect of distracting the political process and creating so many bad feelings that important work goes undone and problems become even more serious down the line.

A New World of Jobs and Housing
It seems likely that this recession will have a long tail in terms of its impact on jobs and housing. Individuals who thought their portfolio and/or the value of their house meant that retirement was imminent may now be facing a decade or more of additional working years. That could be bad on several levels, as it will block new entrants from the job market and will mean higher employment costs for companies. Ironically, the government may stand to benefit, as it could increase the spread of time where these workers contribute to the Social Security system before taking benefits.It is not unusual for housing prices to decline in a recession, but the role of housing in this Great Recession is clearly a little different than past examples. With so many people trapped in unsellable houses, the normal migration from areas with no jobs to areas with jobs has been stymied. Moreover, so many people have learned a harsh lesson regarding the fallacy of houses making great investments.What could this mean for the future? It is not unthinkable that politicians may reconsider whether it really is good to aggressively promote home ownership and whether Congress ought to roll back certain incentives. It may also be the case that former homeowners either decide that the hassles of home ownership are not worth the risks, or that they cannot get mortgages again in the future. In either case, houses may lose their luster and the recovery in housing prices could turn into a multi-decade slog. (For more, see Boomers: Twisting The Retirement Mindset.)

Huge Debts to Pay
In an ironic twist, a recession that came about in large part because of excessive consumer debt and excessive financial leverage in the system may yet end with far too much debt on balance sheets. As the Fed has determinedly pushed rates down to near-nothing, corporations (and the federal government) have gorged on the cheap paper.Savvy companies will no doubt put this capital to work and make substantial returns on the leverage. The problem is, it is never the savvy companies that cause reason to worry. It’s the “me too” companies led by reckless or inept managers who will cause the trouble. Sooner or later, these companies will have a tough time paying their debts, and that will lead to a whole new cycle of worry, distress, job loss and so on. Likewise, without a buoyant economy to bail out the federal government, this high public debt burden could lead the way to higher taxes, higher inflation and other unpleasant consequences.

IN PICTURES: Top 6 Marriage-Killing Money Issues

Prudence, Not Fear, Pays Off
There will always be reasons to be concerned about the future, but investors should guard against despair and unproductive fear. True, this recession may prove to have some long-term consequences that are not fully appreciated today. That does not make them insolvable, however. The best option for investors is to stay as informed as possible, stay diversified and be opportunistic when new ideas show up. (For more, see 5 Lessons From The Recession.)

More From Investopedia

How To Pay Off Your Debt
5 Lessons From The Recession
10 Ways To Budget When You’re Broke

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5 Long-Term Consequences Of The Recession

By Stephen Simpson

Whenever the word “recession” comes up, people expect a certain amount of damage, and damage of a certain type. Everybody knows that there will be job losses and a general sense of gloom and malaise. Most people also seem to expect the government to “do something” to end the recession. Along the way, the stock market falls, interest rates drop and overall economic activity slows down. It is never pleasant, but it is a relatively routine part of the economic cycle.

The Great Recession that officially ended a year ago may be different with consequences that could run deep and last for many years. (It’s not all bad. Check out The Bright Side Of The Credit Crisis.)

“I Love You, But …”
This recession seems to be having a definite impact on family life. Industrial production is not the only “production” that has fallen; birth rates have dropped to record lows as people delay having children in the face of the economic troubles. What’s more, there is the expected increase in divorces – not surprising, given that monetary issues are a common root cause of divorce and tough economic times sharpen those problems – as well as a big spike in prenup agreements.

Losing the Future
One of the saddest under-reported consequences of recession is the different impacts it can have on young people. Grim as it is, recessions lead to higher rates of child malnutrition, and there is ample evidence that points to serious long-term consequences to such malnutrition, including stunted development and academic under-achievement.Even for kids who have enough to eat, the impacts can still be serious. Less money in the pockets of parents can have a direct impact on the kids’ education and enrichment opportunities. Too many high school kids are finding college slipping out of reach due to a combination of parents who cannot help with tuition and banks that will not lend. What’s more, it is fair to wonder what the psychological impact may be of seeing mom and/or dad lose a job and be out of work for years – does it inspire unproductive emotions like resentment or fatalism? (For more, see The 6 Worst Student Loan Mistakes You Can Make.)

More Anger, More Distrust
Recessions have a way of stapling a “kick me” sign to the back of whatever government is in charge during the troubles. This recession feels a bit different though, as almost everybody seems angry about something. One side of the aisle is livid at what they see as untrammeled expansion and intrusion of government; the other side chastises the government for not getting involved enough and solving the problem!With a festering pit of rancor to exploit, some politicians are apparently looking to score points with constituents by stirring the pot instead of working with their colleagues to create long-term solutions for national policy. In turn, that may mean that this recession has the long-term side effect of distracting the political process and creating so many bad feelings that important work goes undone and problems become even more serious down the line.

A New World of Jobs and Housing
It seems likely that this recession will have a long tail in terms of its impact on jobs and housing. Individuals who thought their portfolio and/or the value of their house meant that retirement was imminent may now be facing a decade or more of additional working years. That could be bad on several levels, as it will block new entrants from the job market and will mean higher employment costs for companies. Ironically, the government may stand to benefit, as it could increase the spread of time where these workers contribute to the Social Security system before taking benefits.It is not unusual for housing prices to decline in a recession, but the role of housing in this Great Recession is clearly a little different than past examples. With so many people trapped in unsellable houses, the normal migration from areas with no jobs to areas with jobs has been stymied. Moreover, so many people have learned a harsh lesson regarding the fallacy of houses making great investments.What could this mean for the future? It is not unthinkable that politicians may reconsider whether it really is good to aggressively promote home ownership and whether Congress ought to roll back certain incentives. It may also be the case that former homeowners either decide that the hassles of home ownership are not worth the risks, or that they cannot get mortgages again in the future. In either case, houses may lose their luster and the recovery in housing prices could turn into a multi-decade slog. (For more, see Boomers: Twisting The Retirement Mindset.)

Huge Debts to Pay
In an ironic twist, a recession that came about in large part because of excessive consumer debt and excessive financial leverage in the system may yet end with far too much debt on balance sheets. As the Fed has determinedly pushed rates down to near-nothing, corporations (and the federal government) have gorged on the cheap paper.Savvy companies will no doubt put this capital to work and make substantial returns on the leverage. The problem is, it is never the savvy companies that cause reason to worry. It’s the “me too” companies led by reckless or inept managers who will cause the trouble. Sooner or later, these companies will have a tough time paying their debts, and that will lead to a whole new cycle of worry, distress, job loss and so on. Likewise, without a buoyant economy to bail out the federal government, this high public debt burden could lead the way to higher taxes, higher inflation and other unpleasant consequences.

IN PICTURES: Top 6 Marriage-Killing Money Issues

Prudence, Not Fear, Pays Off
There will always be reasons to be concerned about the future, but investors should guard against despair and unproductive fear. True, this recession may prove to have some long-term consequences that are not fully appreciated today. That does not make them insolvable, however. The best option for investors is to stay as informed as possible, stay diversified and be opportunistic when new ideas show up. (For more, see 5 Lessons From The Recession.)

More From Investopedia

How To Pay Off Your Debt
5 Lessons From The Recession
10 Ways To Budget When You’re Broke

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Market Meets New Wall of Worry Or More Likely Just Brief Profit-Taking On Way To Higher Highs

Stocks pulled back after a big advance and that can be good for bull markets

Most of the bricks in the previous wall of worry have been removed.?Economic reports have continued to improve over recent weeks; in manufacturing, the service sector, retail sales, durable goods orders, and even in the employment picture, where 151,000 new jobs were created in October, more than double the 70,000 that economists expected.

The uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s QE2 decision has been resolved with the Fed adding to the stimulating atmosphere, providing another round of quantitative easing in spite of the already improving economy.

The major U.S. market indexes, including the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq rallied back to, and then above the potential resistance at their April peaks, before pulling back some this week.

Investors have become even more bullish and optimistic. This week’s poll of its members by the American Association of Individual Investors showed 57.6% bullish, the highest level in almost four years.

The good news apparently also reached Main Street. On Friday morning it was reported that the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index improved to 69.3 in early November (its highest level in five months) from 67.7 in October.

So what has been wrong with global markets this week?

Special Offer: Jim Oberweis bought Baidu at $7.90, earning readers huge profits.? Click here for more recommended stocks in the?Oberweis Report.

The U.S. market closed down roughly 2.5% for the week. Emerging markets, which many analysts projected would benefit the most from inflows of additional liquidity provided by the Fed’s decision, were down the most. Brazil, India, South Korea, closed down two to three percent for the week, while China closed down a big 5.5%. Meanwhile, Japan, a large developed country, which was not supposed to fare as well as emerging country markets, closed up 1.0% for the week.

A bet against emerging markets via the ProShares UltraShort Emerging Markets ETF, symbol EEV (designed to move up when emerging markets move down, and leveraged two to one) closed up almost 9.0% for the week.

Was it just that markets had become short-term overbought and ran into a brief bout of profit-taking, particularly since this was the week before the month’s options expirations week, and the week before tends to be negative?

If so, markets are likely to be back up next week since the decline this week took care of the short-term overbought condition, and next week is the week of the expirations, which tend to be positive.

Or was the decline the beginning of something more serious?

The market does seem to have a new wall of worry just a week after concerns about the economic recovery, and whether the Fed would or would not provide additional quantitative easing, faded away.

The bricks in the new wall of worry include:

• Concerns that the Fed’s additional stimulus may cause new problems rather than help the economy by encouraging home purchases or providing new jobs.
• Worries that commodity prices had spiked up into bubbles which may burst, a worry that struck Friday with the big $40 an ounce (3%) plunge in the price of gold, and equally large declines in the price of oil and other important commodities.
• Apprehensions about the activities of the Chinese government, including talk that it might hike interest rates to dramatically slow its globally important economy and ward off threatening excessive inflation in China.
• Anxiety about a potential currency or trade war if the decline in the U.S. dollar continues.

Via technical analysis there is also the U.S. market’s intermediate-term overbought condition above 20-week moving averages, and the high level of investor bullishness (which is at levels of complacency often seen at market tops).

The uncertainties have even extended to U.S. Treasury bonds, which investors have piled into as a perceived safe haven over the last two years. The safe haven over the last two months has actually been a bet against U.S. Treasury bonds. For instance, the ‘inverse’ ProShares Short 20-year bond etf, symbol TBF, designed to move up when bonds move down, has gained 11% since early September, while bonds have declined 11%.

There’s no doubt about it. We are still in a very fluid economic and investing period, not a time for investors to become so complacent as the investor sentiment readings seem to indicate, that they fall asleep at the switch.

(In the interest of full disclosure, we have positions in the U.S. market, the Japanese market, gold, and the ‘inverse’ bond ETF TBF, in our portfolio, at least at the moment).

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Time To Party In Tupperware With The Stock Pulling Back

Seal in a low basis in TUP

In case you missed the Tupperware party during the fall season, consider this week’s 2% correction an invitation to arrive fashionably late.

The “Tupperware space” was a big winner over the past two-plus months. Since September 2, Jarden Corporation, Newell Rubbermaid, and of course Tupperware Brands have rallied 12.9 percent, 10.7 percent, and 14.2 percent, respectively. This past week, Newell and Jarden bent to the market’s force, providing opportunities for those who didn’t join the party.

Since hitting a 6-month high in October, tupperware and diversified consumer products producer Jarden Corporation are down a little over 4 percent, serving to drastically repair Jarden’s technical picture. Over that time, Jarden’s relative strength index (RSI) has improved from an overbought position above 75 to a reading near 47, and the stock’s slow stochastics have fallen from an overbought reading above 80 to below 40.

Special Offer: Make the most out of gold’s phenomenal move higher but don’t get left holding the bag when it’s time to run. Click here for instant access to market timing analysis and specific gold, silver and hard asset model portfolios in Curtis Hesler’s?Professional Timing Service.

Jarden stock has been consolidating and building support following profit taking in the wake of Jarden’s third-quarter earnings report last month, potentially preparing for a new rally.

The charts for Georgia-based Newell Rubbermaid?appear even more favorable. The stock formed a rounding top pattern, but volume has been steadily declining on the downturn. Newell, who also produces writing instrument brands like Sharpie and Papermate, in addition to other products, features an RSI near 37 and slow stochastics below 12, both being indicative of an oversold position. Currently priced near $17.14, look for Newell’s technicals to form a bottom before a potential retracement to the 10-day exponential moving average and to the last strong-volume open price near $17.93 which occurred on November 5.

Newell?also has?the advantage being?priced at 19-times earnings, versus Jarden which trades at a rich price-to-earnings multiple of 47. Yet both stocks?have strong short-term potental based on the charts. Although Newell and Jarden offer extremely modest annual dividend yields of about one percent, compared with Tupperware Brands’ two percent, both stocks may be sending out?invitations to buy the dips.

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Roll With The Cycles, Grab Some Cisco While It’s Cheap Again

Darwin's ideas work in stocks, too

“If I’d known I was going to live this long, I would have taken better care of myself.” – Eubie Blake, American composer (1887–1983)

You cannot underestimate the power of cycles.? They reoccur in nature, business, and financial markets with great regularity.? When we ignore them, cycles seem obvious in hindsight.? Foresight is where you’ll make your money.

Time frames may be different based on secular trends, weather phenomenon, innovations in health care, and government intervention, but generally, what goes around, comes around.? For example, economic booms and busts occurred, on average, every 14 years for 2,000 years.?Beginning in the late 20th?century, they began cycling every seven years as a direct result of government efforts to stimulate economic activity during recessionary downturns.? While they occur more frequently, they’re cycles nonetheless.

Tall Parents Have Shorter Children, On Average
Charles Darwin and his cousin, Francis Galton, were the first to note that tall parents have shorter children, on average, and vice versa.? With Karl Pearson, they studied over one thousand father and son pairs.? Galton termed this phenomenon in nature “regression to mediocrity.”? Since then, the method of studying how one variable leads to another variable has been called “regression analysis.”

Financial market observers see it all the time.? Excessively high prices eventually lead to excessively low prices.? The key to succeeding as an investor is knowing where the excesses are when they’re happening and exploiting them.

Special Offer: Make the most of explosive moves in gold and silver but don’t get left holding the bag when it’s time to run.? Click here for instant access to market timing analysis and specific gold, silver and hard asset model portfolios in Curtis Hesler’s?Professional Timing Service.

“Joining The Dow Can Be The Kiss Of Death”
In September, Jeff Reeves of InvestorPlace.com conducted research showing that by the time companies have grown to become the recognized leaders in their industries, share prices are inflated.? For example, turning the clock back to March 1999 when the Dow Jones Averages closed above 10,000 for the first time, then crested to 11,000 a few months later, four of the biggest names of the day joined the Dow 30. Here’s how they fared: AT&T (then SBC Communications), down 38%; Intel, down 50%;?Microsoft, down 47%;?Home Depot, ?down 38%.

During subsequent reformulations of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, laggards were replaced with other leaders of the time.? They included Pfizer, Verizon, Bank of America, Cisco, and AIG.? As a group, these stocks have been shellacked since they joined the Dow 30, but along the way they have continued to make a lot of money for anyone who purchased shares when stock prices were excessively low.? Many have tripled off of lows in 2003 and 2009.

The point is this: You cannot fight the power and magnitude of cycles.? They can make or break an investor.? Here’s one stock that appears far too low right now:

Fallen Angels Focus Stock: Cisco Systems? (CSCO, 20.15)

Cisco is the dominant player in the global networking industry.? Shares plummeted more than 16% on ?Thursday following a less than stellar outlook presented by company management.? While management cited near term challenges, we believe the selling has provided an attractive entry point for longer-term investors.

The company has a solid balance sheet, operating profit margins of more than 20% and net margins in the high teens.? Our fair value estimate (based on discounted cash flow analysis) is $30 per share; providing investors with 50% potential upside from current levels.

Gabriel Wisdom and clients of American Money Management LLC, including mutual funds managed by AMM may buy or sell securities mentioned without prior notice.

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Time To Party In Tupperware With The Stock Pulling Back

Seal in a low basis in TUP

In case you missed the Tupperware party during the fall season, consider this week’s 2% correction an invitation to arrive fashionably late.

The “Tupperware space” was a big winner over the past two-plus months. Since September 2, Jarden Corporation, Newell Rubbermaid, and of course Tupperware Brands have rallied 12.9 percent, 10.7 percent, and 14.2 percent, respectively. This past week, Newell and Jarden bent to the market’s force, providing opportunities for those who didn’t join the party.

Since hitting a 6-month high in October, tupperware and diversified consumer products producer Jarden Corporation are down a little over 4 percent, serving to drastically repair Jarden’s technical picture. Over that time, Jarden’s relative strength index (RSI) has improved from an overbought position above 75 to a reading near 47, and the stock’s slow stochastics have fallen from an overbought reading above 80 to below 40.

Special Offer: Make the most out of gold’s phenomenal move higher but don’t get left holding the bag when it’s time to run. Click here for instant access to market timing analysis and specific gold, silver and hard asset model portfolios in Curtis Hesler’s?Professional Timing Service.

Jarden stock has been consolidating and building support following profit taking in the wake of Jarden’s third-quarter earnings report last month, potentially preparing for a new rally.

The charts for Georgia-based Newell Rubbermaid?appear even more favorable. The stock formed a rounding top pattern, but volume has been steadily declining on the downturn. Newell, who also produces writing instrument brands like Sharpie and Papermate, in addition to other products, features an RSI near 37 and slow stochastics below 12, both being indicative of an oversold position. Currently priced near $17.14, look for Newell’s technicals to form a bottom before a potential retracement to the 10-day exponential moving average and to the last strong-volume open price near $17.93 which occurred on November 5.

Newell?also has?the advantage being?priced at 19-times earnings, versus Jarden which trades at a rich price-to-earnings multiple of 47. Yet both stocks?have strong short-term potental based on the charts. Although Newell and Jarden offer extremely modest annual dividend yields of about one percent, compared with Tupperware Brands’ two percent, both stocks may be sending out?invitations to buy the dips.

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Perhaps you is me a fly

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Waste the youth time, illation the end of the life

Waste the youth time, illation the end of the life
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Find Wonderful Clubwear At The Best Rates

Acquiring nice looking and low-cost clubwear can often be at the top of your clothes-shopping priority checklist. Many times, it gets all the more important in case you have a sizable bash or club event for attending. Naturally, you need to look really good in front of the people you’re friends with whether it be family, close friends, or both. In this kind of occasions, you everyday clothing simply won’t work.

You have to feel and look glamorous. Your entire oufit really should light your shape in a captivating and glamorous light that minimizes your flaws as well as raises you confidence. It should help to make you truly be noticeable within the group. You can achieve this fantastic look and feel with out going broke, once you learn exactly what to look for and are expense aware. You can still obtain that “that are incredible” look without the need of necessarily harming you wallet in the method. This will further boost your confidence as you will appear great and feel even better.

Purchasing the most effective apparel at the best price will have a very good positive look with your entire outfit. It really is extremely important to locate attire that are comfortable and very flattering. Regardless of what size you are, you will discover great garments at perfectly low prices. You’ll find it won’t even make any difference what style your prefer as great prices are located in a wide range of clothes from the ultra conservative towards the straight out sexy. One of the better place to find low prices for the best trends is to look online. There’s always hundreds of wonderful available on the internet and you would be surprised at how easy it is to find the precise outfit you are interested in. However, a thing of warning about acquiring outfits on the web is to make certain the clothes and fashoins you get will fit in a relaxed manner and you will probably feel great with them.

Online shopping offers a huge selection of retailers by having an endless quantity of styles and sizes. An important feature about online shopping is that you can more often than not find just what you are interested in and quickly make the purchase and have it sent right to you. Also, internet shopping is becoming easier while using range of easy payment selections which include credit cards as well as many retailers now supplying payment options via paypal. There’s little rationale anymore to buy expensive designer apparel, as buying cheaply on the internet is so easily obtainable and easy to do.

Buying economical outfits on the web is not only very beneficial to your finances but won’t even need to take a good deal of time commitment. Shopping online has developed so that you can obtain the exact apparel you need right down to your specifications and style. When you find what exactly you need, you just make payment plus the clothes are shipped right to you. The complete process is quick, painless and ensures your level of privacy throughout.

When you want to acquire high quality low-priced apparel going to the club, online shopping is simply the best option. With how quick the complete process is, you owe it to yourself to circumvent paying expensive mall and department shop costs and start online shopping for top level deals on the trendiest clubwear.

Learn where to get the best deals on a Clubwear Tops as well as Mens Clubwear

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